The ongoing war in Ukraine is not only causing widespread suffering but also poses a significant threat to global climate targets. The direct emissions from military operations, including the use of weapons, jets, tanks, and trucks, are substantial yet difficult to quantify and are not included in the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The war has also led to an energy crisis, highlighting the world’s dependence on oil and gas, which in turn funds the Russian war effort. This has caused some Western nations to seek alternative energy sources, including higher-polluting ones, potentially leading to a fossil fuel lock-in. For instance, the EU’s plan to replace Russian gas with high-emission “freedom gas” from the US and Germany’s increased use of coal are concerning trends.
As the G7 summit approaches, world leaders are expected to address the indirect energy-related impacts of the war and their implications for meeting Paris climate goals. Axel Michaelowa, from Perspectives Climate Group, emphasizes the need for better reporting and accountability of military and conflict-related emissions, which are significant but often go unreported. The suggestion has been made to include military emissions in the global greenhouse gas stocktake at COP28 and for the UNFCCC to monitor the destruction of carbon reservoirs during conflicts.
NATO has recently urged member states to become climate neutral by 2050, and regular reporting across all emissions, including postwar rebuilding, is seen as vital for achieving this goal. The Ukraine war has brought increased attention to military emissions and the role of military budgets in securing fossil fuel supplies. Several NATO countries are planning to increase military budgets in response to the war, which will further increase the military carbon footprint.
There is a growing awareness that climate change and the need for a full energy transition to renewables could reduce funds available for large war machines and conflict, potentially deterring aggression. If military emissions were to be accounted for compulsorily, it could impact a country’s ability to meet climate targets and thus have a deterrent effect on military aggression.
Massive global military emissions often go unreported. That could change as the G7 meets and addresses the impacts of a Ukrainian conflict fueled by Russian oil and gas.
Source: Ukraine war threatens climate target